Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8a3…5f17 world 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$9
other 16% −$10
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 0% -16.9%
≤30d 10 -4.5% -13.6% 30% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 10 -4.5% -13.6% 30% 0% -12.1%
all 27 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -12.9%
10% -22.3% 0% -21.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -28.9%
20% -36.7% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage471d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$7 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $10 $0 -1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 30 $12 $0 -1%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 07 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 20m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 20m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 18h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $6 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $8 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records