trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 50% | 0% | -16.9% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 30% | 0% | -12.1% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 30% | 0% | -12.1% |
| all | 27 | -5.0% | -14.1% | 41% | 0% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.1% | 0% | -12.9% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 0% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 0% | -35.8% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $48 | −$7 | -15% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $8 | −$2 | -21% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $18 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $45 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 31 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 29 | $29 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Jun 20 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 30 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Apr 29 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 29 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next | Apr 28 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Apr 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 27 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Apr 27 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? | Mar 21 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 19 | $13 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? | Mar 07 | $13 | $0 | +2% |