Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8a2…77a9 sports 419 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$400 (+2%) realized +$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%359W / 60L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$20
14 days−$366
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$418
other 22% +$120
world 1% +$636
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -4.7% -13.8% 88% 6% -8.5%
≤30d 333 -3.3% -12.5% 86% 18% -9.3%
≤90d 419 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 21% -8.3%
all 419 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 21% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 21% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 4% -17.0%
15% -27.2% 2% -25.1%
20% -34.3% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses359 / 60
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage38d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Spread: UD Almería (-2.5) Jun 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 +$2 +6%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $80 +$9 +11%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $61 +$3 +5%
Spread: United States (-5.5) Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $46 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$4 -73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $150 +$14 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $93 +$7 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $28 +$1 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 9h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $8 9h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $8 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $38 10h
Spread: UD Almería (-2.5) BUY Málaga CF 96¢ $10 10h
Spread: UD Almería (-2.5) BUY Málaga CF 94¢ $8 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $5 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $28 12h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $30 12h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $27 13h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $28 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $5 16h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $5 26h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $5 27h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 97¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $20 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 92¢ $19 29h
Australia leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $8 35h
Spread: United States (-5.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $10 35h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $8 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 973 history records