Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd89e…46f8 other 184 markets active 3h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$813 (+32%) realized +$813 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%154W / 20L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$4
politics 32% +$432
tech 18% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.3% -9.2% 83% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 50 +0.3% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 140 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 4% +15.4%
all 174 +1.1% -8.5% 89% 5% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% +9.4%
10% -17.2% 4% -1.1%
15% -25.2% 3% -10.6%
20% -32.6% 3% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.53 per $1 lost it wins $29.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses154 / 20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)174 / 184
History coverage134d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $46 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $43 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $43 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $23 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.92 · official $44.92 (match) · 588 history records