Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd89e…55cd sports 44 markets active 3d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$98 (-20%) realized −$89 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$47
14 days−$46
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$50
other 39% −$30
crypto 7% −$22
tech 2% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -43.2% -48.6% 56% 0% -36.3%
≤30d 40 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 8% -27.7%
≤90d 40 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 8% -27.7%
all 40 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 8% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 8% -27.7%
10% -33.8% 2% -34.6%
15% -40.2% 2% -41.0%
20% -46.0% 2% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage32d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? No 96¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? Yes 88¢ 8¢ $7 $1 −$7 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $4 $0 +4%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 26 $4 +$6 +140%
Roland Garros WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Elena Rybakina May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar May 25 $5 $0 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$3 -14%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $15 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $25 −$3 -14%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $5 −$1 -16%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $15 −$2 -15%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $27 −$3 -11%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Hanyu Guo vs Sofia Costoulas May 21 $5 −$1 -10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 89¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 52¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 85¢ $39 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 7d
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $5 17d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 17d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 99¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar SELL Rafael Jodar 99¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 99¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 65¢ $4 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 90¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 96¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 98¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 75¢ $5 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 66¢ $4 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $18.20 (match) · 169 history records