Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd89d…a01e sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$52 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$9
politics 31% −$41
world 16% +$53
tech 15% −$31
other 2% +$11
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤30d 2 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤90d 21 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 29% -8.8%
all 56 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 14% -9.3%
10% -24.5% 4% -18.0%
15% -31.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1,531
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage234d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1,467 $1,442 −$25 (-2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 25 $21 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1,402 +$74 +5%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,465 −$4 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 26 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,467 −$4 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $1,521 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $1,514 +$6 +0%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $17 +$1 +8%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 02 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 28 $16 −$5 -34%
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 20 $16 +$3 +18%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 04 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $21 +$3 +15%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 25 $22 +$1 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 25 $27 +$1 +6%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Mar 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 11 $14 +$3 +20%
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Mar 03 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.80 (LOW) by Februar Mar 03 $11 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $21 +$3 +16%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Feb 21 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 09 $21 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 05 $33 −$8 -25%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Feb 05 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $13 −$2 -17%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Jan 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $22 −$7 -33%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $33 −$5 -17%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $18 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,475 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,402 30d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,462 30d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,465 40d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,464 40d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 84¢ $5 46d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,467 46d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 90¢ $35 46d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,519 46d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,521 52d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,514 54d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $1 54d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 58d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 62¢ $11 58d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 66d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 93¢ $16 66d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 66d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 95¢ $21 66d
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $31 66d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl BUY Yes 85¢ $16 74d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem BUY Yes 79¢ $15 74d
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $14 82d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 78¢ $15 82d
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 87d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 92¢ $20 92d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $21 92d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? BUY No 95¢ $18 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,531.46 · official $1,531.46 (match) · 156 history records