Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

D8 0xd89b…14b7 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$52 · open −$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day19.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+7.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+18.2%	+7.0%	40%	40%	+62.7%
≤30d	10	+18.2%	+7.0%	40%	40%	+62.7%
≤90d	10	+18.2%	+7.0%	40%	40%	+62.7%
all	10	+18.2%	+7.0%	40%	40%	+62.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.0%	40%	+62.7%
10%	-3.3%	40%	+47.1%
15%	-12.6%	40%	+32.9%
20%	-21.2%	40%	+19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$4 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$52

Unrealized−$52

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 15

History coverage2d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day19.0

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt?	Yes	13¢	3¢	$10	$3	−$7 (-74%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	30¢	2¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-92%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$20	$1	−$19 (-97%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$20	+$47	+231%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$6	+$10	+161%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$11	+$16	+145%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	+$3	+246%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$3	−$1	-47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$18	−$18	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	SELL Yes	99¢	$68	14m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	38m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	39m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	39m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	41m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt?	SELL Yes	16¢	$16	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	35¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	3h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	44¢	$5	3h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	38¢	$6	3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4	23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 32 history records