Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd89b…e23f sports 630 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$24 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%368W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days−$6
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$53
other 37% −$35
crypto 7% −$14
politics 2% −$3
tech 1% +$5
world 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.3% +4.4% 61% 61% +3.4%
≤30d 130 -7.1% -16.0% 55% 53% -14.3%
≤90d 500 -6.4% -15.4% 56% 54% -15.4%
all 623 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 56% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 56% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 51% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 41% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 30% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses368 / 255
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)623 / 630
History coverage122d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 60¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$2 -73%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$4 +139%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +29%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $3 +$3 +84%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +67%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$1 +46%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $6 −$3 -48%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $8 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 37h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.89 · official $17.89 (match) · 1301 history records