Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd895…3d8f crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,029 (-12%) realized −$1,029 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%82W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$8
sports 23% −$821
economics 15% −$236
crypto 13% −$96
tech 9% +$152
other 6% −$32
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 17% -21.4%
≤30d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 94 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 28% -55.5%
all 184 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 33% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -20.1%
10% -27.6% 23% -27.7%
15% -34.6% 17% -34.7%
20% -41.0% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,029
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses82 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage235d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $2 +$5 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: EC Juventude 0 - 1 SC Recife? May 24 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? May 21 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $4 $0 -9%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Hugo Dellien May 21 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-05-23? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET May 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $7 $0 -4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 03 $1 $0 +20%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $56 −$27 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 16d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 23d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 25d
Exact Score: EC Juventude 0 - 1 SC Recife? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 26d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 742 history records