Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd895…9d68 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-10%) realized −$308 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day168.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$409
sports 34% +$105
other 7% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -25.6%
≤30d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -25.6%
≤90d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -25.6%
all 66 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 47% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 47% -32.8%
15% -31.1% 45% -39.3%
20% -37.9% 36% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day168.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 65¢ 64¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 +$25 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$57 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$43 +84%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$68 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$29 +174%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$24 +40%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$37 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$4 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $97 −$45 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$59 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$38 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$40 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $81 2m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $86 6m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 1¢ $2 8m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 54¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $108 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.15 · official $78.15 (match) · 378 history records