Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd895…ad02 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$195 (-9%) realized −$187 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%25W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$162
other 43% −$62
world 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% +29.8%
≤30d 2 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% +29.8%
≤90d 36 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 25% -12.9%
all 73 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 25% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 25% -22.9%
10% -19.2% 19% -30.3%
15% -27.0% 18% -37.0%
20% -34.2% 16% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage231d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes $34 $26 −$8 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 08 $48 −$46 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? Apr 08 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12? Apr 06 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 02 $52 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$4 +436%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$5 +481%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 31 $35 +$31 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum above 2,055 on March 31, 12PM ET? Mar 31 $1 +$3 +310%
Ethereum above 2,040 on March 31, 12PM ET? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum above 2,035 on March 31, 11AM ET? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $40 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on March 29? Mar 30 $32 +$4 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 23-29? Mar 29 $21 +$11 +55%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $63 +$108 +172%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Dec 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 21 Nov 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 21 $59 −$2 -3%
Over $20M committed to the VOOI public sale? Nov 21 $52 +$7 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 21 Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on November 21 Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 21 Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Nov 20 $300 −$24 -8%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 41h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up $1 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $104 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $98 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 72d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $9 72d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $40 72d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 73d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 73d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up $1 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4AM ET BUY Up $1 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 78d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 2? BUY Up $1 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 78d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 2? BUY Yes $1 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $52 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 2? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 2? BUY Yes $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 78d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.33 · official $28.35 · 128 history records