Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd893…cdcf other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$28 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day63.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$40
other 25% −$19
sports 3% +$15
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 25% -14.1%
≤30d 32 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 25% -14.1%
≤90d 32 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 25% -14.1%
all 32 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 25% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 25% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 19% -22.3%
15% -38.5% 16% -29.8%
20% -44.5% 9% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)32 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 14¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$20 +34%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$14 +137%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -65%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $102 in June? Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 22 20 Jun 23 $3 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$3 -64%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $4 +$1 +17%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $96 in June? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$54 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $24 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $11 17h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.04 · official $122.04 (match) · 127 history records