Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd893…5b0e other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$46 (-15%) realized −$42 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$40
sports 39% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +54.1% +39.4% 100% 100% +42.9%
≤30d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 60% -7.4%
≤90d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 60% -7.4%
all 5 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 60% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 60% -7.4%
10% -7.3% 60% -16.3%
15% -16.3% 60% -24.4%
20% -24.5% 40% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage26d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $52 +$32 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $51 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 4h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 54¢ $51 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $20 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $52 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $51 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.86 · official $141.86 · 39 history records