Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd891…f54f politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,009 (+1%) realized +$1,009 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,594per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$99
politics 40% −$179
sports 5% +$1,260
culture 5% −$12
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$5
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 6% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 107 -2.8% -12.1% 9% 6% -9.0%
all 107 -2.8% -12.1% 9% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.0%
10% -20.5% 6% -17.7%
15% -28.2% 6% -25.7%
20% -35.2% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,682) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$6 · ×26.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized+$1,009
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,594
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $568 $568 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $333 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $472 +$3 +1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $6,436 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,360 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $2,507 −$4 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $8,739 −$7 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $977 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,172 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,663 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,691 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $7,202 −$8 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,924 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 +$42 +50%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $57 +$68 +119%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $2,445 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $4,905 −$7 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,205 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $2,885 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $1,614 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $569 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $497 17h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 21h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $222 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $223 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $905 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $906 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $988 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $705 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $918 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $919 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $895 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $897 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $333 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,249 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $915 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $916 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $971 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $972 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $976 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $977 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,143 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.08 · official $901.08 (match) · 417 history records