trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -19.9% | -27.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -7.1% | -16.0% | 31% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 27 | -7.4% | -16.2% | 44% | 4% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.2% | 4% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -24.3% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -31.6% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -38.3% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $44 | $44 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 24 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 23 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 27 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $89 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $45 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 22 | $46 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $45 | +$1 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 20 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 19 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru | Apr 23 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 22 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| More Epstein files released in March? | Apr 02 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US lifts Russia sanctions before April? | Mar 28 | $4 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | Mar 21 | $18 | +$3 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27? | Feb 26 | $18 | $0 | +0% |