Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd88f…bb17 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$2
other 5% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 26 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage461d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 69¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 15 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $7 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $33 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $32 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $27 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.44 (match) · 89 history records