Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd88e…ebcc
world · 73 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage485d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 69¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $97 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -24%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $119 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $118 +$6 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $53 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $50 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $37 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $63 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$12
other 22% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 13% −$10
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $19 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $31 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $51 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 5h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $47 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $47 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $47 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $7 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $51 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $52 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $47 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $47 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $7 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $7 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 +67.4% +51.5% 27% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 65 +33.7% +21.0% 29% 5% -9.3%
all 71 +26.8% +14.7% 31% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 4% -9.6%
10% +3.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -6.3% 4% -26.1%
20% -15.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $1.00 (match) · 272 history records