Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd88d…1985 world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 26% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 5% $0
weather 5% +$1
culture 4% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
all 11 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -16.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -24.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage484d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $7 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February Mar 04 $7 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records