Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd88d…0cd9 crypto 613 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+3%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate42%256W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -0.7% -10.1% 39% 14% -12.0%
≤30d 494 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 21% -10.1%
≤90d 613 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 22% -10.4%
all 613 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 22% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 22% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 9% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 5% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses256 / 357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)613 / 613
History coverage42d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 613 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2310 history records