Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd88d…ac20 sports 26 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,128 (+29%) realized +$4,128 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$177
14 days+$329
30 days+$3,988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,984
crypto 14% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.0% +38.4% 75% 75% +43.7%
≤30d 26 +80.9% +63.7% 81% 50% +16.0%
≤90d 26 +80.9% +63.7% 81% 50% +16.0%
all 26 +80.9% +63.7% 81% 50% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.7% 50% +16.0%
10% ← realistic here +48.0% 50% +4.9%
15% +33.7% 42% -5.3%
20% +20.6% 38% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$40 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.04 per $1 lost it wins $21.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage23d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score Jun 14 $30 +$19 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score Jun 14 $116 +$31 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 14 $103 +$129 +125%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score Jun 11 $91 +$8 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First Jun 11 $109 −$37 -34%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score Jun 09 $0 +$2 +1150%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score Jun 07 $151 +$92 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 07 $123 +$88 +72%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score Jun 04 $196 +$12 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 04 $33 +$13 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even Score May 31 $501 +$17 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score First May 31 $7,291 +$2,192 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score First May 29 $161 +$181 +112%
Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score May 29 $857 +$712 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score First May 27 $6 −$2 -29%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even Score May 27 $1,146 +$647 +56%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: Odd/Even Score May 26 $97 −$2 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Team to Score First May 26 $1 +$2 +284%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: Odd/Even Score May 26 $375 +$12 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score May 26 $269 +$13 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score May 25 $238 −$156 -66%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: Odd/Even Score May 24 $196 +$11 +6%
Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score May 23 $4 +$4 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First BUY Spurs 51¢ $52 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 28¢ $28 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Spurs 34¢ $24 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Spurs 35¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 44¢ $44 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 22¢ $4 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 49¢ $6 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 49¢ $11 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 47¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 47¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 46¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 47¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 46¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 49¢ $6 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 49¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 24¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 39¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Spurs 34¢ $11 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Knicks 39¢ $39 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Spurs $7 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 26¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First BUY Knicks 23¢ $8 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First BUY Knicks 28¢ $17 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 22¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Odd 18¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First BUY Spurs 30¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 44¢ $3 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 43¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score BUY Even 43¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 560 history records