Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd88c…5235 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$501 (+16%) realized +$499 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$476
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.7% +1.9% 80% 80% +9.4%
≤30d 5 +12.7% +1.9% 80% 80% +9.4%
≤90d 5 +12.7% +1.9% 80% 80% +9.4%
all 5 +12.7% +1.9% 80% 80% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 80% +9.4%
10% -7.8% 60% -1.1%
15% -16.7% 60% -10.7%
20% -24.9% 20% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$400 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$712
Realized+$499
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$88 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,515 +$722 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $401 −$400 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croati BUY 3¢ $51 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,236 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $58 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $501 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.11 · official $762.11 · 19 history records