Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd88b…aefa
crypto · 99 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$8 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage68d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? No 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $2 +$1 +74%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -38%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 +$3 +266%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 18 $1 $0 +37%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $1 +$1 +125%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -79%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 08 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 06 $7 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 06 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 06 $1 $0 -12%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 06 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$4 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$16
world 13% +$7
sports 8% $0
other 7% +$1
politics 2% −$1
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 3d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $3 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 87¢ $1 9d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 41¢ $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 81¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $2 11d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $4 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 51¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $5 14d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +49.1% +34.9% 100% 75% +37.0%
≤30d 16 +39.2% +26.0% 88% 62% +16.6%
≤90d 94 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 30% -12.7%
all 94 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 30% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 30% -12.7%
10% -24.7% 15% -21.0%
15% -32.0% 14% -28.6%
20% -38.6% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.85 · official $9.85 (match) · 334 history records