Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd888…6035 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+25%) realized +$24 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$27
sports 17% −$10
other 10% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 89% 67% +37.3%
≤30d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 89% 67% +37.3%
≤90d 9 +45.4% +31.6% 89% 67% +37.3%
all 9 +45.4% +31.6% 89% 67% +37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 67% +37.3%
10% +19.0% 44% +24.2%
15% +7.5% 22% +12.2%
20% -3.0% 11% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×9.14 per $1 lost it wins $9.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$19 +374%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 19 history records