Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd886…75e7 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 219L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$41
sports 20% −$17
politics 9% −$3
culture 7% −$6
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
world 2% −$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage128d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $518 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $477 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $334 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 4h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 20h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 25h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 39h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 44h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1250 history records