Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd884…84c3 crypto 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+0%) realized +$156 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%222W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$17
14 days+$32
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$148
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -1.3% -10.7% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 223 -0.1% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$548) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×139.15 per $1 lost it wins $139.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses222 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage544d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $623 $625 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $619 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $616 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $615 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $612 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $610 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $607 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $602 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $601 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $595 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $595 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $593 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $592 +$1 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $590 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $590 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $586 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $582 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $579 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $578 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $576 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $574 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $569 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $567 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $558 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $556 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $553 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $623 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $619 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $616 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $615 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $612 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $610 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $607 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $602 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $601 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $595 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $595 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $593 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $592 13d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $590 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $590 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $589 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $586 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $585 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $584 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $584 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $582 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $581 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $579 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $578 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $576 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $574 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $569 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $569 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $567 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $624.56 · official $624.56 (match) · 460 history records