Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd882…5649 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 40% −$14
sports 5% +$30
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 93 +0.1% -9.5% 10% 6% -9.4%
all 106 -1.9% -11.3% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 8% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage116d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $499 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $271 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $876 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $326 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $316 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $335 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 10 $293 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $27 37h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 37h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $289 14d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 27d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 39d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 45d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 45d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 46d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 46d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $286 47d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 47d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $198 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $283 48d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $229 48d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 48d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 48d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 49d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $224 49d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $224 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records