Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd881…af24 sports 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,629 (+8%) realized +$9,726 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%165W / 160L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$1,459est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5,557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18,495
7 days+$7,841
14 days+$5,339
30 days+$8,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$6,418
other 9% −$3,156
world 7% +$5,348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +3.1% -6.7% 54% 54% +1.8%
≤30d 324 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 51% -2.8%
≤90d 325 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 50% -2.9%
all 325 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 50% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 50% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 45% -12.2%
15% -30.0% 40% -20.6%
20% -36.8% 36% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$299 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5,557
Realized+$9,726
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses165 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,459
Open positions14
Markets (closed)325 / 339
History coverage30d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $1,526 $1,331 −$195 (-13%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 36¢ $1,143 $1,164 +$21 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $1,069 $1,056 −$12 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 55¢ $747 $814 +$67 (+9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $271 $279 +$8 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $268 $264 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $258 $256 −$2 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ 40¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 54¢ $102 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 56¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+11%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 44¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 25¢ 28¢ $27 $31 +$3 (+12%)
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $127 +$145 +114%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,936 −$1,824 -62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,314 −$2,281 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $251 −$248 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $104 −$103 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $506 −$499 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$120 +344%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $27 +$21 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $303 +$523 +172%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $198 −$193 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $106 −$104 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18,494 +$17,242 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $39 +$41 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6,171 +$5,715 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $241 −$68 -28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $221 −$218 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,829 −$5,741 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $551 −$543 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $81 +$73 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $941 +$101 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $202 +$32 +16%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $429 +$46 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $340 +$474 +139%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$26 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $245 +$226 +92%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $214 +$226 +106%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $46 +$35 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3,887 −$3,849 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $92 +$52 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $433 −$427 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 +$59 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $236 +$127 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $19 +$25 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $95 +$77 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,002 +$574 +29%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $381 +$490 +129%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $178 +$173 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $243 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1,087 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $224 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $183 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $7 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $215 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $33 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $24 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $59 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $70 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $4 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $159 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $28 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $3 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $3 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $4 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $9 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $4 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $12 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $15 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $19 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $19 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $40 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $415 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 34¢ $158 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $5 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $2 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $609 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,557.24 · official $5,557.35 (match) · 898 history records