Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd880…9c97 crypto 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$719 (-10%) realized −$719 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%165W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$392
14 days−$377
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$723
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -11.0% -19.5% 48% 42% -19.9%
≤30d 118 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 43% -18.2%
≤90d 318 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 49% -19.3%
all 318 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 49% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 49% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 43% -27.0%
15% -33.3% 33% -34.1%
20% -39.8% 26% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$719
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses165 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 317
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $158 +$57 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $93 −$58 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $112 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $108 −$43 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $124 −$29 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $64 +$46 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $124 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $125 −$80 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$37 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $124 +$54 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$26 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $55 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $60 −$20 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $65 −$30 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $137 −$65 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $110 +$56 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$21 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $68 −$25 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $124 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $86 −$51 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $125 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $44 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$17 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$25 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $43 −$18 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records