Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd87f…8240 politics 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$19
other 41% −$13
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$55
crypto 2% $0
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 1% -9.6%
all 115 +5.0% -5.0% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -14.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -22.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×16.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage118d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $948 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $219 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $452 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $292 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $551 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $315 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $245 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $309 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $298 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $308 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $319 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 46h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $51 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records