Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D8 0xd87e…36fa sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-9%) realized −$139 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%26W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$120
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$100
other 20% −$6
crypto 8% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -5.9% -14.9% 45% 38% -19.3%
≤30d 59 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 37% -19.3%
≤90d 59 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 37% -19.3%
all 59 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 37% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 37% -19.3%
10% -22.4% 36% -27.0%
15% -29.9% 36% -34.1%
20% -36.7% 31% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses26 / 33
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $28 $52 +$24 (+85%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 59¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 −$7 -25%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -92%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -96%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$1 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$3 -23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$13 +47%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$8 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 −$10 -36%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$27 -92%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$7 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$16 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $14 +$10 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 +$14 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$8 +139%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $147 +$11 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $79 −$65 -82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$13 -91%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$15 -48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 +$75 +168%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 +$1 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $34 −$21 -61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $28 −$23 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $28 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 2¢ $1 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $14 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $12 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $15 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $7 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 27¢ $11 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $14 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 32h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 32h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 32h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.86 · official $94.01 (match) · 130 history records