Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd879…2f44 sports 605 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,462 (-2%) realized −$1,364 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%317W / 300L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day99.8pace
Fees−$796est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$564
7 days−$223
14 days−$1,735
30 days−$1,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$951
other 11% −$448
politics 3% +$3
crypto 2% −$173
weather 1% −$12
world 0% −$3
tech 0% +$130
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 309 -20.4% -27.9% 38% 32% -11.0%
≤30d 591 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 34% -10.9%
≤90d 617 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 33% -11.5%
all 617 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 33% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 33% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 26% -19.9%
15% -35.1% 20% -27.7%
20% -41.5% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$44 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$1,364
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses317 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$796
Open positions18
Markets (closed)617 / 605
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day99.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 54¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 20¢ 33¢ $33 $55 +$22 (+65%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 66¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+36%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 32¢ $59 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Yes 28¢ 99¢ $14 $49 +$35 (+258%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 31¢ 12¢ $100 $37 −$63 (-63%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 30¢ 33¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 15¢ 4¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 20? No 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $245–250 in 2025? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Makina public sale? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 21 $0 $0 -269%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 21 $35 −$31 -88%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Ma Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 21 $14 −$13 -89%
Will Kelly Oubre Jr. lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA sea Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on November 28, Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA sea Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Makina public sale? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tari Eason lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 21 $8 −$9 -110%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on November 28, 2025? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on November 28, Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 in 2025? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $525 +$151 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$7 -36%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$18 -88%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $21 −$11 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$133 +291%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $20 +$30 +146%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$1 -55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$18 -92%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $20 −$20 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $20 −$19 -92%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $40 +$22 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $79 1m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 10m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 31¢ $102 25m
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 2¢ $1 40m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 2¢ $1 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 11¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 2h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 27¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL No 4¢ $10 3h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 8¢ $21 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $36 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $16 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 2¢ $0 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Sweden 1¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.49 · official $508.51 (match) · 3500 history records