Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd879…d744 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 23% -23.5%
≤30d 13 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 23% -23.5%
≤90d 13 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 23% -23.5%
all 13 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 23% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 23% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 15% -30.8%
15% -37.4% 0% -37.5%
20% -43.5% 0% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records