Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd879…3ff6 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+9%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day76.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$85
other 7% +$14
weather 0% −$5
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 38% -2.0%
≤30d 48 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 38% -2.0%
≤90d 48 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 38% -2.0%
all 48 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 38% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 38% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 29% -11.4%
15% -33.3% 29% -20.0%
20% -39.8% 25% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day76.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $217 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$75 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$28 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.85 · official $19.85 (match) · 127 history records