Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd878…4857 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 720d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-23%) realized −$274 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%71W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$114
14 days−$218
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$77
sports 34% −$8
world 9% +$2
politics 3% −$4
crypto 2% −$7
finance 2% −$16
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -22.0% -29.4% 47% 38% -24.6%
≤30d 60 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 40% -30.7%
≤90d 64 -9.1% -17.8% 52% 44% -28.7%
all 103 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 45% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 45% -18.1%
10% -17.7% 31% -25.9%
15% -25.6% 23% -33.1%
20% -32.9% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

720d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$274
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses71 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage720d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 26 $3 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $26 −$1 -2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $112 −$112 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 26 $14 +$10 +71%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $11 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 26 $26 −$3 -13%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $38 +$40 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$30 +97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $33 +$4 +13%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +63%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $5 +$4 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $15 +$10 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +8%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $14 −$7 -53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$2 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $40 +$27 +67%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +45%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $27 +$26 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $30 1h
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 SELL Mayweather 59¢ $3 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 12h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 12h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 20h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 20h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $20 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $38 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 64¢ $37 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.88 · official $73.88 (match) · 519 history records