Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd875…19cf other 352 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,536 (-11%) realized −$1,474 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%88W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,251
7 days−$1,251
14 days−$1,251
30 days−$2,773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$541
sports 42% −$1,336
crypto 13% −$643
world 3% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -40.8% -46.4% 21% 21% -47.7%
≤30d 335 -17.7% -25.5% 26% 25% -28.5%
≤90d 335 -17.7% -25.5% 26% 25% -28.5%
all 335 -17.7% -25.5% 26% 25% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 25% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 21% -35.3%
15% -39.2% 19% -41.6%
20% -45.1% 17% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$26 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses88 / 247
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions17
Markets (closed)335 / 352
History coverage24d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $78 $96 +$18 (+23%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $71 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 35¢ 64¢ $36 $66 +$30 (+84%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $88 $46 −$42 (-48%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $57 $45 −$12 (-21%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Yes 30¢ 44¢ $31 $45 +$14 (+45%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Yes 24¢ 28¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots Yes 46¢ 50¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 26¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 8¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-80%)
Exact Score: IK Start 1 - 0 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-92%)
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 1¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 +$19 +145%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$16 +102%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$23 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$28 +276%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 16 $8 +$44 +554%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $32 +$21 +64%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $114 −$100 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $135 −$132 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $38 +$46 +123%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $143 −$139 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $83 −$81 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $116 −$113 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Warren Zaïre-Emery: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 5+ shots Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$91 -89%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $27 +$79 +296%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
IR Iran to win the second half? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$44 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $49 +$70 +142%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $41 +$18 +44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $80 +$21 +26%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 8m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 12m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 13m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 13m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 13m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 14m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 29m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 30m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 30m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 31m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 50m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 51m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 52m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.19 · official $502.54 · 1182 history records