Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd871…a133 weather 1253 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$301 (+1%) realized +$541 · open −$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1219W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$20
14 days−$1
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$287
politics 8% −$238
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 823 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1226 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 1226 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$32 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,207
Realized+$541
Unrealized−$240
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1219 / 7
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1226 / 1253
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 74¢ $500 $738 +$238 (+48%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $500 $262 −$238 (-48%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 72¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 13 Jun 14 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 50m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $20 50m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $25 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,207.46 · official $2,207.47 (match) · 3500 history records