Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd86e…12ea crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+4%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate89%41W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 59% -7.4%
≤30d 46 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 59% -7.4%
≤90d 46 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 59% -7.4%
all 46 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 59% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 59% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 11% -16.3%
15% -24.4% 2% -24.4%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses41 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$14 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$9 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $32 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $16 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $33 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $33 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $32 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $32 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $32 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.51 · official $39.51 (match) · 88 history records