Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd86a…f806 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$8
politics 23% $0
sports 14% $0
other 10% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.1% 20% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 14 -3.1% -12.4% 43% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 17 -3.0% -12.3% 41% 0% -10.6%
all 52 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage317d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $39 −$1 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$3 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $50 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $7 −$1 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $44 −$3 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $6 −$1 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $54 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $6 $0 -2%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on August 10 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $3 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $22 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $11 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $6 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $20 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $21 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $37 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $13 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $26 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $42 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $42 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $40 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $6 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records