Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd868…7f60 other 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$981 (-10%) realized −$978 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%69W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$455
14 days−$688
30 days−$997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$1,439
sports 14% +$290
crypto 8% −$147
world 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +65.2% +49.4% 29% 29% +18.6%
≤30d 258 -9.2% -17.9% 19% 19% -21.9%
≤90d 363 -13.5% -21.8% 19% 19% -23.6%
all 363 -13.5% -21.8% 19% 19% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 19% -23.6%
10% -29.3% 19% -30.9%
15% -36.1% 19% -37.6%
20% -42.4% 19% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$21 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$978
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses69 / 294
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage39d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $297 $294 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $428 −$207 -48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$99 +644%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 +$84 +1133%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$87 +308%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$39 +336%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 +$39 +463%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 +$87 +1171%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 +$125 +67%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $9 +$21 +218%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 +$36 +432%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 1 - 2 Ceará SC? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 1 Avaí FC? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +248%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$84 +1631%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $11 +$111 +981%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$81 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $301 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $210 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 33h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 33h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 33h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 34h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 38h
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 60¢ $115 39h
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 89¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $115 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.47 · official $294.47 (match) · 697 history records