Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd867…a353 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (266 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$400 (+3%) realized +$553 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate82%74W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day266.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (266 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +5.4% -4.6% 82% 57% -9.2%
≤30d 90 +5.4% -4.6% 82% 57% -9.2%
≤90d 90 +5.4% -4.6% 82% 57% -9.2%
all 90 +5.4% -4.6% 82% 57% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover266.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 57% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 29% -17.9%
15% -22.1% 18% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$107 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses74 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage1d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day266.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 45¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$43 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $217 −$162 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $283 +$44 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $255 +$109 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $306 +$93 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $194 +$42 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$23 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$113 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$26 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $315 −$64 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$7 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,012 −$749 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $304 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $229 +$49 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $609 +$45 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $222 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $606 +$97 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $74 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $67 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $66 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $142.36 · 372 history records