Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd867…5c92 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$18 (+20%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$64
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.9% +30.2% 67% 67% +80.8%
≤30d 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 75% +69.2%
≤90d 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 75% +69.2%
all 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 75% +69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 75% +69.2%
10% +18.1% 75% +53.0%
15% +6.6% 75% +38.2%
20% -3.8% 25% +24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.31 per $1 lost it wins $12.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 +$55 +182%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records