Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd866…e835 crypto 1713 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$906 (+1%) realized +$906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%1702W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$5
14 days+$16
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$795
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.6%
≤30d 251 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 2% -9.1%
≤90d 1713 +1.5% -8.1% 99% 2% -8.9%
all 1713 +1.5% -8.1% 99% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$65 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1702 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1713 / 1713
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1713 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $84 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $89 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.20 · official $17.70 · 3449 history records