Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd866…78bf other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$73 (+18%) realized +$75 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$24
sports 5% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +44.3% +30.5% 78% 78% +11.4%
≤30d 9 +44.3% +30.5% 78% 78% +11.4%
≤90d 9 +44.3% +30.5% 78% 78% +11.4%
all 9 +44.3% +30.5% 78% 78% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 78% +11.4%
10% +18.0% 78% +0.7%
15% +6.6% 67% -9.0%
20% -3.8% 44% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$53 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 78¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $33 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.76 · official $67.76 (match) · 20 history records