Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd865…96ba crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$692 (+8%) realized +$631 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate29%39W / 94L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,062
7 days+$763
14 days+$726
30 days+$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$969
crypto 6% −$234
sports 5% −$79
politics 0% −$24
tech 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.3% -21.6% 52% 43% -0.6%
≤30d 62 -25.9% -32.9% 40% 31% -1.8%
≤90d 121 -38.9% -44.7% 31% 25% -3.2%
all 133 -41.1% -46.7% 29% 23% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 23% -3.3%
10% -51.8% 20% -12.5%
15% -56.5% 15% -21.0%
20% -60.7% 12% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -51% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$12 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$631
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses39 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage104d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $635 +$646 +102%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $590 −$261 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,687 +$222 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $964 +$213 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $846 +$221 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $306 +$102 +33%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $215 −$167 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$84 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,471 +$35 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $157 +$47 +30%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 −$42 -60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 +$141 +206%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $111 −$43 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $141 +$16 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +37%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
OPEC dissolves in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -66%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$17 -49%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $329 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $272 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $363 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $488 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,177 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $482 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $163 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $218 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $501 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up $1 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $510 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $345 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $48 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $306 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $18 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,506 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,100 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $370 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $29 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $28 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $76 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.21 · official $161.21 (match) · 324 history records