Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D8 0xd863…5c5e other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$783 (-13%) realized −$331 · open −$452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$4,996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$549
crypto 5% −$236
weather 1% +$25
sports 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -58.0%
all 17 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -58.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 24% -58.0%
10% -56.2% 24% -62.0%
15% -60.4% 18% -65.7%
20% -64.3% 12% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$40 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$4,996
Realized−$331
Unrealized−$452
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)17 / 27
History coverage69d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,700 $1,488 −$212 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $1,025 +$25 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $750 $683 −$67 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $700 $674 −$26 (-4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $600 $525 −$75 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $558 $512 −$47 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? May 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Brentford FC? May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: SSC Napoli 2 - 2 US Cremonese? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 21 $210 −$210 -100%
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 25 $27 +$65 +239%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 25 $40 +$37 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25? Apr 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 24 $24 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $575 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $618 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,648 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $617 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $823 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $44 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $154 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 26d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 51d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 51d
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $42 51d
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Brentford FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 51d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 52d
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 40¢ $9 52d
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 29¢ $27 52d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $32 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 53d
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 53d
Exact Score: SSC Napoli 2 - 2 US Cremonese? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,995.96 · official $4,996.01 (match) · 123 history records