Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D8 0xd85f…0a2c other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$304 (+27%) realized +$304 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$421
7 days+$418
14 days+$326
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$68
other 46% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +38.4% +25.3% 67% 67% +31.2%
≤30d 30 +12.4% +1.7% 53% 53% +16.6%
≤90d 30 +12.4% +1.7% 53% 53% +16.6%
all 30 +12.4% +1.7% 53% 53% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 53% +16.6%
10% -8.0% 53% +5.4%
15% -16.9% 53% -4.7%
20% -25.1% 43% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$23 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage11d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$23 +112%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -30%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $24 +$16 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $14 −$14 -99%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$46 +129%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $81 +$76 +93%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$60 +388%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $41 +$30 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 +$57 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $21 +$8 +37%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 +$24 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $111 +$76 +68%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $35 +$14 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $146 +$52 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $69 +$75 +108%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$25 -82%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 +$41 +67%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $39 −$38 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $94 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $14 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $16 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $16 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $20 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $24 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $41 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $15 24h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $81 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 26h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 26h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $187 26h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 26h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 76¢ $50 27h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 27h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 27h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $46 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $146 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records