Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd85d…60d2 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-0%) realized −$119 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%49W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$180
crypto 18% +$49
economics 8% +$6
finance 7% +$4
other 5% −$1
sports 2% +$1
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -4.6% -13.7% 89% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$52 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses49 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage219d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 58¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 26 $641 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $1,768 +$11 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Apr 29 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $235 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $393 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 21 $3,135 +$14 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $759 +$1 +0%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $192 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $1,410 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $94 −$18 -19%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $197 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $1,239 +$3 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 03 $313 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $2,004 +$6 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $812 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $805 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $1,182 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $198 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $250 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $239 −$239 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $456 +$5 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $456 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $449 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $673 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $637 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $407 +$2 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Feb 16 $375 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $77 +$34 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $190 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $176 +$13 +7%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 28 $171 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $172 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $173 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 58¢ $59 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $59 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $119 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 34d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $56 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $117 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $116 42d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $117 42d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $116 51d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $74 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $3 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $8 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $15 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $115 57d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $187 57d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $241 57d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $186 58d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $177 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 58d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.99 · official $115.00 (match) · 375 history records