Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd85d…0f24
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78 · open −$99
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 67¢ 14¢ $126 $27 −$99 (-78%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$36 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 +$35 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$25 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $33 +$32 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$19
other 15% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $78 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $40 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $37 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 15¢ $10 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +28.7% +16.5% 62% 62% +19.4%
≤30d 8 +28.7% +16.5% 62% 62% +19.4%
≤90d 8 +28.7% +16.5% 62% 62% +19.4%
all 8 +28.7% +16.5% 62% 62% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 62% +19.4%
10% +5.3% 62% +8.0%
15% -4.9% 62% -2.5%
20% -14.2% 62% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.18 · official $27.18 (match) · 16 history records