Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd85b…a848 sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,218 (+4%) realized +$902 · open +$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%48W / 53L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$584est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$770
7 days+$770
14 days+$770
30 days+$2,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,578
other 5% −$476
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% +19.6%
≤30d 94 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 49% -0.9%
≤90d 101 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 48% -2.3%
all 101 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 48% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 48% -2.3%
10% -18.1% 43% -11.6%
15% -26.0% 39% -20.2%
20% -33.2% 35% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$218 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized+$902
Unrealized+$316
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$584
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage32d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 55¢ 100¢ $387 $703 +$316 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $152 +$144 +94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $102 −$61 -60%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $838 +$1,105 +132%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $197 +$60 +31%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 23 $303 +$304 +100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $195 −$137 -70%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $710 −$489 -69%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $503 −$86 -17%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $102 +$126 +124%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $54 +$11 +20%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $41 +$40 +97%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $102 +$255 +249%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1,756 −$928 -53%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $481 −$342 -71%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $1,138 −$1,116 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $995 +$486 +49%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $265 −$261 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $1,716 +$519 +30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $358 −$187 -52%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1,008 −$70 -7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $526 −$380 -72%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $506 +$287 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $512 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $364 −$258 -71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $153 −$130 -85%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $189 −$186 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $197 +$122 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $250 +$217 +87%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $462 −$16 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $191 −$123 -64%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $115 +$75 +65%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $272 +$123 +45%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $204 −$25 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $183 +$192 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $507 +$85 +17%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 03 $153 −$148 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $507 +$128 +25%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $812 +$881 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,516 +$998 +66%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,305 −$1,283 -98%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $274 −$270 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $203 +$163 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $273 +$156 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $296 23m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $152 53m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $152 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 64¢ $240 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $41 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 40¢ $102 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 71¢ $257 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 53¢ $197 3h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 47¢ $375 4h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $463 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $102 16h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 16h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Hernan Casanova 100¢ $606 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $195 19h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 49¢ $303 19h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 26¢ $204 19h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 27¢ $206 20h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 64¢ $505 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $202 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $418 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 25h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $228 25h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 44¢ $102 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 35¢ $65 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 28¢ $54 26h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 67¢ $81 27h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 33¢ $41 27h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $357 27h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 28¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.29 · official $703.29 (match) · 237 history records