Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D8 0xd85b…f4ca crypto 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$97 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%142W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$79
14 days−$106
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$75
sports 40% −$107
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 31% -50.7%
≤30d 225 -4.6% -13.6% 47% 45% -19.5%
≤90d 307 -5.8% -14.7% 46% 44% -19.8%
all 307 -5.8% -14.7% 46% 44% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -19.8%
10% -22.9% 42% -27.5%
15% -30.4% 39% -34.5%
20% -37.2% 35% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses142 / 165
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage36d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -56%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$16 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 +$4 +413%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$5 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$10 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $23 −$21 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 19m
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 25m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 34m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 37m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.22 · official $49.13 · 746 history records