Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd85b…efdb crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$157 (-3%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 36% −$2
other 28% −$1
world 17% −$1
politics 11% −$1
sports 4% −$156
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.0% -15.0% 20% 20% -13.9%
≤30d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 17% -13.8%
≤90d 11 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 9% -14.7%
all 40 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 2% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -12.5%
10% -20.8% 2% -20.8%
15% -28.5% 2% -28.5%
20% -35.5% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage402d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $821 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $12 +$8 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $135 −$132 -98%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Francesco Maestr May 07 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 29? Mar 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 12-18? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 27? Jan 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 9? Dec 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 6? Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k August 11–17? Sep 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5500 August 11–17? Sep 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Sep 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 05 $33 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jul 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York May 28 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $245 $0 -0%
Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $466 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $854 1h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $855 1h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $819 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $795 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $835 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $135 23h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $12 23d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Francesco Maestr BUY Francesco Maestrelli 37¢ $32 41d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 66d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 66d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 66d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 66d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 66d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $35 82d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $15 82d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 82d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 82d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 101d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 140d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 140d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 156d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 156d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $8 156d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 156d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 174d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 174d
Will Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 100¢ $24 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records